Notes From D.R. | Random Thoughts on the Passing Scene

New York Times science reporter Nicholas Wade contends in his new book The Faith Instinct: How Religion Evolved and How It Endures that human beings are by their very nature inclined to believe in something greater than themselves, something that will bring about an improvement in their current conditions. This inclination acts as a psychological defense mechanism, a safeguard against extreme despair.

The Faith Instinct has been published at an ideal time, a time when sociopolitical circumstances in the United States require a certain amount of faith—blind or otherwise—that things will get better.

Faith comes in handy when facts don’t. Facts would naturally lead one to conclude that America may never be free from its heavy debt, may never be as economically vibrant as it once was, may in fact lose its superpower status at some point and become just another nation. Only faith—blind or otherwise—can lead us to the reassurance that things will not be as bad as they seem.

Viewed from a purely objective status, America is going downhill—its citizens becoming more ignorant and entertainment-obsessed, its politicians (from both parties) becoming more corrupt, its institutions becoming more untrustworthy, its future becoming more grim. You could not blame a parent who believes his child’s quality of life will be worse than his or her own.

Once faith is introduced, the dynamic changes. Wade notes that the Puritans held fast to the view that America was a nation uniquely blessed by God, and that this belief has been maintained by Americans of faith throughout the centuries. If one believes that God has placed special protection upon America, one will be disinclined to believe that God will remove such protection and allow America to spin into chaos. (This presupposes, of course, that one is not a deist, or a Pat Robertson-style religious pessimist.)

Strong faith is required for conservatives who saw their movement tremble in the 2000s. The demographic and cultural trends suggest decades of Democratic dominion in America, and the wholesale collapse of the once-vibrant right. Conservative figures such as Sarah Palin and Rush Limbaugh are considered icons by those who share their views, but the rest of the country doesn’t seem to share the same love, to put it mildly.

Conservatives must hope that more and more Americans become disillusioned by President Obama, and that this disillusionment becomes so deep that the electorate forgets about its contempt for George W. Bush. The combination of growing anti-Obama sentiment and the emergence of a more coherent conservative message will result in future political victories for the right. Conservatives have to believe that these two political necessities will become reality.

Faith is not limited to conservatives; progressives also believe that things will ultimately turn out for their benefit. Progressive advocates of same-sex marriage, for example, must surely have faith that their recent political defeats are just a late-2000s backlash, and that over time enough Americans will come to the conclusion that gay and lesbian couples deserve to have their partnerships recognized by government. It would be quite natural to be disillusioned in light of these defeats, and the polling data indicating the problems many Americans still have with the concept of same-sex marriage; however, faith in the future compels these progressives to pay attention to data suggesting that younger Americans are welcoming of same-sex marital rights. At some point, the older Americans who strongly oppose the idea won’t be around, and their children and grandchildren will express equally strong support for the concept.

Faith—perhaps not necessarily in God, but faith in something—compels all of us. It allows us to look forward to tonight, tomorrow, next week, next month, next year. It allows us to work as hard as possible to achieve our political goals, because we have confidence that these goals will be achieved.

Without such faith in a better day on the horizon, we would not have had a civil rights movement or a women’s suffrage movement. Without such faith, neither Ronald Reagan nor Barack Obama would have thrown their hats into the Presidential ring. Without such faith, this very country would not have been founded.

No matter where we are on the economic or political spectrum, we all have to believe in something. There is, indeed, a faith instinct—and that instinct is necessary for our survival.

Is Sarah Palin being set up to fail?

It’s hard to avoid that impression after hearing Palin’s disastrous December 3 appearance on Rusty Humphries’ nationally syndicated radio show. Palin, who delivered above-average performances last month on the Fox News Channel programs hosted by Bill O’Reilly and Sean Hannity but failed to acquit herself well on Rush Limbaugh’s radio show, bombed spectacularly on Humphries’ broadcast, incoherently discussing the alleged controversy for President Obama’s place of birth and relying on already-stale catchphrases like “common-sense conservatism” and “faith, family and freedom.” Nothing against common sense, conservatism, faith, family or freedom, but Palin needs to understand that as an unofficial representative of the conservative movement, she cannot afford to come across as unfocused or unintelligent in any media appearance: as veteran radio executive Randall Bloomquist once put it, she needs to be great on a good day and good on a bad day.

Even if Palin remains inconsistent in terms of the quality of her media appearances, it’s hard to envision her fanbase—which also happens to be the base of the Republican Party—turning against her. That fanbase is down on the GOP these days, regarding the party’s leaders as elitists who are scornful of movement conservatives and more tolerant of moderates such as failed 2008 GOP nominee John McCain. If Republican Party leaders recognize that Palin cannot win a general election, but cannot induce the party’s base to consider alternatives, one wonders if those leaders will, in effect, try to teach the base a lesson.

Let’s say the economy recovers in 2011-2012, and President Obama avoids any major foreign-policy screwups heading into his re-election bid. It’s still possible that Obama could be defeated, but only by a candidate who could appeal to folks beyond the GOP’s base, a candidate who is consistently strong in his media appearances, a candidate who never comes across as cognitively compromised. Let’s also say that this candidate is seen by a majority of the GOP base as an untrustworthy moderate, and that this candidate ultimately fails to get past Palin in the 2012 primaries. If Palin becomes the GOP nominee, would it really be too far-fetched to envision the party’s leaders damning her with strong praise, outwardly declaring their firm support while privately expecting, and possibly even hoping, that she fails miserably?

I wouldn’t put it past GOP leaders to effectively go rogue on Palin in 2012, quietly rooting for her failure as a means of sending a message to the GOP base that the most conservative candidate in a Republican Party primary is not necessarily the best candidate. Presumably, the party’s leaders understand why Palin is so strongly admired by the base, but they also understand that the base alone cannot bring about a Presidential victory.

Think back to the 2000 primary. George W. Bush was not the most conservative combatant in that particular battle royale: former Reagan administration officials Alan Keyes and Gary Bauer were the ones with the unimpeachable conservative credentials regarding fiscal, social and defense issues. Of course, Al Gore would have slaughtered either Keyes or Bauer in the general election; by the time election day rolled around, over 50 percent of the country would have been led to believe that the GOP contender was a Bible-banging wingnut.

The base loves Palin because they see her as the real deal—humble in her background, strong in her Christian faith, traditionalist in her worldview. However, the party’s shot-callers surely understand that what endears Palin to her supporters may also repel those who aren’t already on board. GOP bigwigs must be horrified by how inconsistent Palin has been in her recent media appearances, but they also must know that the love the party’s base has for her is just as strong as the love Ronnie had for Nancy.

If Palin comes up short against Obama in 2012, it will effectively slap the rose-colored glasses off the faces of her supporters. It isn’t that odd to imagine GOP leaders secretly hoping that this happens. If Palin is defeated resoundingly, it will force the party’s base to confront the unpleasant reality that the country, while not far-left, is not nearly as resolutely conservative as it was decades ago. The average voter will not vote for someone they see as either a left-wing or a right-wing “extremist.” Yes, Reagan was demonized for years as a right-wing extremist prior to his historic 1980 victory; however, it was only President Carter’s catastrophic failure as Commander-in-Chief that compelled voters to take a second look as Reagan’s vision. If the economy has been reasonably strong in 1980, and if Carter had been able to liberate the hostages during Operation Eagle Claw, would Reagan have won that election?

Palin seems to recognize that she has enemies within the Republican Party. Does she realize how many enemies there might actually be?

Sometimes you have to strike while the iron is hot.

Barack Obama understood this. After he captured the imagination of progressives with his dynamic 2004 speech at the Democratic National Convention, he realized that the momentum he had generated would only last for a short period of time. He capitalized on that momentum well in advance of its cutoff date, releasing a bestselling book, The Audacity of Hope, in the fall of 2006 and launching his Presidential bid shortly thereafter. Fortune favors the bold, and fortune certainly blessed Obama’s boldness a year ago this week.

Now, Sarah Palin has to follow that path. She must take advantage of this unique moment. After her tour to promote Going Rogue: An American Life concludes, and after she does her part to help conservative Republicans secure House and Senate victories in the 2010 midterms, she must commit to a 2012 Presidential run.

Palin will shatter the hearts of her supporters if she declares, a la Colin Powell, that a bid for the White House is a calling she does not yet hear. Millions of Americans now see her as the only person that can turn around the turmoil, the only political figure who can bring limited-government conservatism back to its rightful place in the US. To pass up this opportunity with so much momentum behind her is to act stupidly.

Palin will never have another real chance to run if she forfeits a 2012 bid. Pro-Palin sentiment is intense on the American right, but it cannot, and will not, last forever. If she fails to seize this moment, she will drive her devotees into doubt. Yes, her admirers can look past her July 2009 decision to resign as governor of Alaska, but if she says no to a 2012 bid, her supporters will naturally start to wonder if she’s all hype with no hope.

Can Palin actually defeat President Obama? In the eyes of her strongest supporters, she has to. If Palin runs, she will have scores of volunteers who will go without sleep or comfort to ensure that she becomes the 45th President. To many conservatives, libertarians and independents, Palin is the literal embodiment of truth, justice and the American way—and they will do whatever it takes to support their superhero.

Palin cannot disappoint these people. She must know that they view her as the epitome of what makes America great—and, more importantly, as the ultimate repudiation of American liberalism. In Palin, they see a woman who rejects in toto progressive elitism and secular humanism. The more the left looks down upon her, the more these supporters will lift her up.

In Palin, they see hope—hope that Washington’s mistakes will finally be corrected, hope that the American progressive establishment will finally get its comeuppance, hope that the average man and woman will finally have someone in power who will represent their interests and concerns. In their eyes, Palin is the ultimate patriot—the symbol of something better, something greater, something purer.

The strength of the bond that has formed between Palin and her supporters cannot be overstated. Palin is the ordinary person who just happens to be extraordinary—the person who had big dreams and the courage to purse those dreams until they became real. In their view, America was created so that people like Palin could rise to prominence; in her, they see evidence that America has no caste system, no guaranteed privileges due to birth or station. Anybody can be somebody in this country, and she’s living proof.

Palin’s rise is a testament to her sheer force of will, her determination to make her mark upon this land. Palin’s supporters live vicariously through her—and why not? Don’t Obama’s supporters live vicariously through him?

Palin cannot disappoint the people who have made such a great emotional and intellectual investment in her. She must bring this dream to reality.

Millions of Americans want to see Sarah Palin take that oath on January 20, 2013. They want to be there for that moment—that moment when any dream can come true, when any goal can be accomplished, when any medal can be won. Across America, people are calling on Palin to run. She must answer “Yes”—or, even better, “You betcha!”

Please join us tonight at 8:00pm EST for The Notes on Blog Talk Radio! We will begin with a symposium on the first anniversary of President Obama’s victory, and at 8:30pm we will have Richard Brookhiser from National Review!