Dead and Wounded Elephants
May 27, 2009
If the Republicans cannot defeat President Obama in 2012, they might as well go out of business.
Obama is beginning to show signs of vulnerability, despite his strong approval ratings. It is beyond belief that the President continues to call for the closing of the detention center at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, without having developed a comprehensive plan to deal with the aggressors currently being held in the facility. There are clear signs that Obama will be virtually impotent when it comes to dealing with North Korea. In addition, his selection of progressive jurist Sonia Sotomayor to fill the US Supreme Court seat being vacated by David Souter gives Republicans a flawless forum to highlight the problem of judges going beyond the Constitution.
A reorganized GOP would be able to stop Obama in his tracks despite his advantages. However, the signs of a reorganized party are still few and far between. Republicans won’t get anywhere running off at the mouth about House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s apparent smearing of the CIA: the current controversy is simply not strong enough to force her resignation. Relying on the likes of former Vice President Dick Cheney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to make the case against Obama’s vision isn’t conducive to long-term success either: the sight of Cheney and Gingrich won’t make independents embrace the GOP again (regardless of the accuracy of their claims against Obama).
What the Republicans need is a civil, convincing message, preferably one delivered by figures not connected to the scandals of the 1990s and the screw-ups of the 2000s. Simple, strong statements against Obama’s positions and in favor of reasonable alternatives could improve the GOP’s badly damaged image in the mind of the average voter.
It won’t be enough to lambaste Obama for wanting to close Guantanamo. Republicans must make the case for keeping Guantanamo open in a way that doesn’t come across as excessive fear-mongering and doesn’t invoke 9/11 every five seconds. It shouldn’t be too complicated to explain to average Americans that Guantanamo detainees are too radical and too dangerous even to be held in US maximum-security prisons, and that Guantanamo, despite its negative reputation, is best suited to keep these detainees away from the tools they need to inflict harm upon the homeland.
It won’t be enough to accuse Obama of weakness on North Korea. The Republicans must clearly and coherently explain why it is so important for America to project strength. If North Korea feared the United States’ reaction to the prospect of nuclear testing, it wouldn’t dare provoke us. Former UN Ambassador John Bolton, who has long suggested that the US not play patty-cake with North Korea, should be consulted to help the Republicans advocate an effective response to the country’s saber-rattling.
Demonizing Sotomayor will also fail as a strategy: while Sotomayor does strike conservatives as a stereotypical liberal judge, she’s clearly qualified to be a Supreme Court Justice and has an impressive personal story. Just because the Democrats almost got away with keeping Clarence Thomas away from the High Court in 1991 despite his own qualifications and back story does not mean that the Republicans will be able to successfully do the same. Instead of trying to figure out ways to block Sotomayor (even if Republican Senators and conservative activists managed to torpedo the nomination, Obama would just find another “empathetic” judge to nominate to the bench, perhaps someone far more unpalatable to conservatives), the Republicans would be better off making a strong case against judicial activism in the court of public opinion. Without resorting to scare tactics, the Republicans could make the argument that a Supreme Court Justice must be “empathetic” only to the rights and restrictions established by the Constitution, not to any other factor or element. Stated effectively, this argument could have far more resonance with the American people than Obama’s vague vision of “empathy.”
Only a strong Republican Party (and a strong candidate) can defeat Obama in 2012. Will the party reacquire strength in time? Or will the GOP continue to look to the past, continuing to express a Reagan fixation in a manner that generates liberal laugher and conservative vexation? The GOP desperately needs to get its act together. The party needs to have a reasonable, effective message, and also needs to reestablish itself as a true center-right entity: it’s fine to effectively ask Colin Powell to leave, but the party’s leaders had better ask the “Where’s Obama’s birth certificate?” crowd to hit the road right along with him. While the prospect of an Obama loss seems ludicrous right now, stranger things have happened. However, Republicans cannot defeat him by telling the country what they are against. They must explain to the voters what they are for.
