Notes From D.R. | Random Thoughts on the Passing Scene

So much for the theory that the first black President would be a conservative Republican.

I was among the folks who used to believe that the first President of color would be someone with a red-state vision. I simply could not imagine a black Democrat becoming President; I long believed that the image of black Democrats had been so contaminated by the likes of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton that only a black Republican had a chance to cross the Presidential color line.

Shows you what I know, eh?

With Obamamania poised to sweep the country next Tuesday, we can finally conclude that the first-black-President-will-be-a-Republican theory was little more than an offshoot of the equally nonsensical theory that the country is fundamentally center-right in its thinking. Barack Obama has proven plenty of people wrong over the past year and a half, and his likely victory will silence the last of the skeptics.

As one of those skeptics, I can’t help wondering: why couldn’t a black Republican get to the White House first?

Colin Powell had a chance thirteen years ago, but he botched it, chickening out with one of the lamest explanations of modern times (“It is a calling I do not yet hear”). If Powell had the courage to run as a Republican in 1996, he would have likely ousted President Clinton and spared us the moral horror of the Lewinsky saga…but he didn’t, so he didn’t.

Years ago, former Congressman J. C. Watts was considered a Republican Presidential prospect, but he ultimately never lived up to the hype. Watts was effective enough as a lawmaker, but he never became a true political superstar; for all of his smarts, he would have likely failed as a Presidential candidate, the same way John Kasich and Duncan Hunter collapsed in their respective Presidential bids.

Alan Keyes attempted to secure the GOP nomination in 1996 and 2000; even if he had succeeded, he also would have failed, as he would have run into the same problems Sarah Palin is now dealing with as a vice-presidential candidate. Keyes’ strong social conservatism would have been flatly rejected by certain factions within the party; members of those factions would have defected to the Democrats rather than endorse Keyes’ “uncompromising” views with their votes.

It’s hard to imagine any black Republican other than Powell becoming an Obama-style star. Ken Blackwell would have been considered too conservative; Michael Steele would have been considered insufficiently conservative (for example, he has made statements that appear to support quota-based affirmative action programs), and would not have had a Powell-style “cult of personality” to offset his deviations from conservative orthodoxy. Was there any black Republican who could have made it to the top before Obama?

The ideal black Republican Presidential candidate would have the looks of Blair Underwood and the politics of Thomas Sowell. He would have to be a brilliant orator, well-educated, solidly conservative but not repellent to those who didn’t agree with every last aspect of right-wing thought. He’d have to be someone with business experience, someone with an actual command of economic issues. It would also help if he came from a family with a military background. Put these elements together, and you’d have the perfect candidate. Unfortunately for the Republicans, that candidate exists where mermaids and unicorns exist.

Am I disappointed that the first black President will not be a Republican? Yes and no. It would have been wonderful, not just for the GOP but for the country as a whole, if a black Republican had been able to shatter the Presidential glass ceiling. It would have served as permanent proof that the GOP was, is and always will be the “party of Lincoln”; it would have finally exorcised the ghost of Goldwater’s gaffe.

On the other hand, one cannot begrudge Obama his success. Despite my disagreement with his politics, he worked hard to achieve this goal, running one of the most effective and efficient campaigns in recent memory. Yes, it can be argued that he received a huge assist from the mainstream media. Yes, it can be argued that he would not have been this successful if George W. Bush hadn’t alienated large portions of the country. Yet one must respect Obama for doing the heavy lifting that led him to this point.

Perhaps the first black President was always going to be a Democrat. The Republicans will have to find their own barrier-breaking candidate in the 2010s. I can think of a certain Louisiana governor who just might fit the bill…