» 2007 » September Notes From D.R. | Random Thoughts on the Passing Scene

The ’08 election will be, to a certain extent, a referendum on the Bush Administration. This obviously pleases Democrats, who almost unanimously regard Bush as one of the worst Presidents of all-time and who believe that voters will run to the voting booth en masse to say no to four more years of Republican mismanagement.

However, if voters aren’t boiling mad at Bush by this time next year, things might not turn out so well for the Democrats. The party managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in ’00 and ’04—and it’s not beyond possibility that they could do the same in ’08.

The Democrats can only win if anti-Bush sentiment in ’08 is as intense as anti-Nixon sentiment was in 1976, the year Jimmy Carter defeated Nixon’s second-in-command. Carter’s party successfully exploited lingering anger over Gerald Ford’s September 1974 pardon of Nixon to score a victory in a close race. Yet, despite mounting unease with the Iraq War, it’s not clear that Americans will walk into the voting booth filled to the brim with anti-Bush rage.

It seems that Americans are bored with Bush, tired of him, eager to see him get along back to his ranch in Crawford. But do they hate him? While his poll numbers are quite low, they’re still nearly three times as high as those of the Democrat-controlled Congress.

Democrats are confident that voters will want change next year—but change won’t necessarily mean voting for a Democrat. The electorate will desire a leader seemingly more competent than Bush—but it’s a stretch to assume they’ll automatically rule out the Republican nominee.

(After all, how many people really think that Hillary Clinton will be an improvement upon Bush?)

There’s a possibility that Democrats are apparently ignoring—the possibility that anti-Bush sentiment does not extend beyond the man himself. Most Americans who voted for Bush in ’00 did so with the hope that he would become as great a President as Reagan; they re-elected him because they felt he would be better than John Kerry in defending the country. While the US has been spared another attack, it is now clear that Bush has not measured up to the Reagan standard. This, not Iraq, is the true root of American disappointment concerning Bush.

However, the desire to find another Reagan still beats strong in the American heart—and so long as that desire remains, the Democrats will find themselves at a disadvantage. What the Democrats don’t realize is that the old intellectual and emotional themes of conservatism—strong defense, lower taxes, a less intrusive government, respect for religious traditions, belief in American’s intrinsic greatness etc.—still resonate with plenty of Americans. Eighteen years after Reagan left office, and three years after Reagan died, many citizens are still looking for that shining city on a hill.

If the Republican nominee can successfully articulate a Reagan-conservative vision—something Bush has inconsistently articulated over the years—he’ll stand a better-than-average chance of success. Many voters will want to look forward; they’ll accept that the Bush era, flaws and all, has come to an end, and will desire someone who will succeed where Bush has failed. If the GOP nominee can convince Americans that he’ll be closer to the Reagan standard than the Bush standard, he’ll go over.

If the GOP is unified, and selects the right candidate, the party will not be hindered by Bush’s foibles. Just as Nixon’s embarrassments did not ultimately render the GOP null and void, Bush’s failures will also not doom the party to political oblivion. With an effective standard-bearer, the GOP can win in 2008—and perhaps in 2012 as well.

Posted by drtucker

Filed in Current Affairs

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