Notes From D.R. | Random Thoughts on the Passing Scene

Should the Republicans regain control of the House and Senate in 2008, don’t hold your breath waiting for the GOP to revive efforts to enact the Federal Marriage Amendment.

Even if the Maryland Supreme Court follows in the footsteps of Massachusetts and decides to authorize same-sex marriage, it’s unlikely that the Republicans, if they regain power, will work to pass the FMA. This decision will have nothing to do with principle and everything to do with politics.

It’s often been argued that the GOP failed to press forward with a serious effort to enact the FMA in 2006 because same-sex marriage is a "divisive" social issue. In reality, same-sex marriage isn’t that "divisive" an issue, because there is very little national support for gay marriage. However, while that is the case now, it may not always be the case–which is what the GOP is anticipating.

Because of increasing American cultural libertarianism regarding homosexuality, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that by the 2030s, a majority of Americans could in fact support the idea of gay marriage. If this turns out to be the case, then the GOP doesn’t want to be caught "flat-footed." If, a generation from now, gay marriage enjoys wide support, the Republican Party will be looked upon with scorn by those who feel that past efforts to constitutionally forestall gay marriage were homophobic.

While many Americans are currently hesitant to compare the gay rights movement to the civil rights movement, the GOP is apparently concerned that what happened to the party after the civil rights movement will happen to the party again after the gay rights movement. The Republicans suffered lasting damage when Barry Goldwater refused to support the 1964 Civil Rights Act for libertarian reasons during his campaign against President Johnson. Martin Luther King Jr. denounced Goldwater, accusing him of endorsing segregation and declaring that no American of conscience could support either Goldwater or any Republican who backed him. Despite the fact that Republicans such as Illinois Sen. Everett Dirksen were instrumental in the very passage of the ‘64 Civil Rights Act, Goldwater’s actions and King’s response allowed the mainstream media to depict the entire Republican Party as a bigoted enterprise–a demonization that continues to this very day. While the GOP has been quite successful despite being smeared as a racist entity in the ’60s, think about how much more successful the party would be if it had never been branded with the scarlet letter of racism: for example, had George W. Bush yielded as much of the black vote in 2000 as he did the white vote, he would have blown Al Gore out of the water.

The Republicans evidently fear that, if they were to strongly support the FMA, they would be haunted by the specter of alleged homophobia in the future, just as they have been haunted by the specter of alleged racism for the past 43 years. Social conservatives must understand that, even if the Republicans reclaim the House and Senate in ‘08, the party will not make a priority of preserving traditional marriage–because the GOP is scared to death that in the future, voters will look at the party and ask for a divorce.