Notes From D.R. | Random Thoughts on the Passing Scene

So William Galvin’s gone, and Massachusetts Attorney General Tom Reilly and former Clintonista Deval Patrick are left to duke it out for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination next year.

Reilly has the cash advantage for now, but Patrick is attempting to narrow the gap, utilizing such high-profile figures as Vernon Jordan and Robert Reich to pump cash into what seemed, only a month ago, to be a sputtering campaign.

At this stage of the game, Reilly still appears to have the nomination locked up–but what if there’s a surprise during the Democratic state convention, and Patrick actually ends up securing the nod?

This is not as far-fetched as you might think. Patrick has clearly established himself as the darling of the Democratic Party’s left wing, some members of which are enamored of the idea that Patrick could become the state’s first African-American governor. And while Reilly has made overtures to the far left, he’s hardly what you’d call a progressive favorite, especially considering his only-recently-renounced opposition to gay marriage. (His decision to support a prospective income tax cut won’t help him with the lefty faithful either.)

Meanwhile, Patrick has continued to reaffirm his status as a blue-state sex symbol, questioning income tax cuts, praising gay marriage and impressing Boston Globe op-ed hacks. To the Bay State’s hard left, comparing Reilly to Patrick is like comparing horse crap to Haagen-Dazs.

So it’s not out of the realm of possibility that a progressive push could propel Patrick to the Democratic nomination. But what kind of message would that send?

Nominating Patrick would tell the Commonwealth that the Democrats have no real interest in recapturing the moderates and independents who’ve supported GOP gubernatorial candidates for the last decade and a half. Patrick may be an ultra-liberal darling, but his statist stands have no appeal to any other segment of the voting populace. (Even the notion that he could draw large numbers of minorities is open to question, as his opposition to preserving traditional marriage has drawn the ire of Gil Thompson, an influential African-American Boston minister who has a megaphone large enough to persuade voters of color not to support Patrick.)

Nominating Patrick would also tell the Commonwealth that the Democrats also believe in the power of guilt-tripping. Can anyone honestly deny that subtle racial appeals will be used to bolster Patrick’s bid? Does anyone put it past the Democrats to run ads encouraging voters to "make history" by supporting Patrick for governor? Does anyone not think that the Democrats (and their media proxies, most notably the Globe) will surreptitiously suggest that a vote for Patrick is the perfect way to obliterate the notion that Massachusetts is hostile to people of color? Can anyone argue against the obvious–that the Democrats will push Patrick in a way that will emphasize something other than the content of his character? (Is it also not obvious that if Patrick loses, the Democrats will claim that the defeat was due to racism, when it could have been due to moderates and independents rejecting his ultra-liberal stands?)

Patrick has yet to make any significant inroads with independents and moderates, a fatal mistake. It seems that his strategy is to assume that the same people who reflexively vote for Kennedy and Kerry will get behind him, thus making any extra effort unnecessary. That is an arrogant position for him to take. Yes, some moderates and independents support Kennedy and Kerry, but that has more to do with their perceived effectiveness as senators, ideology notwithstanding. Kennedy and Kerry, for good or ill, are "brand names," and can generate support from moderates and independents based on that status. Patrick is not, and he is myopic to behave as though he is.

A Patrick nomination will be good for free publicity from the local and national media–he’ll receive even more fawning articles from Morrissey Boulevard, no doubt–but it will not translate into a victory. He’ll have a few bright, shining moments in the sun…and that’s about it.

They’ll be lots of "shock and awe" in liberal circles if Patrick wins the nomination battle and loses the electoral war. However, there shouldn’t be any shock if he goes down to defeat. Yes, Massachusetts is a lefty state, but sometimes you can be too liberal–and too arrogant–for the people’s tastes. Ask Scott Harshbarger or Shannon O’Brien. Or better yet, this time next year, ask Deval Patrick.