Notes From D.R. | Random Thoughts on the Passing Scene

Disney’s A Christmas Carol tops the charts.

Jeff Jacoby on Congressional power.

The Next Right on the social conservative vs. libertarian divide in the GOP (one that Bob McDonnell did his best to fix in Virginia, no?).

Sometimes you have to strike while the iron is hot.

Barack Obama understood this. After he captured the imagination of progressives with his dynamic 2004 speech at the Democratic National Convention, he realized that the momentum he had generated would only last for a short period of time. He capitalized on that momentum well in advance of its cutoff date, releasing a bestselling book, The Audacity of Hope, in the fall of 2006 and launching his Presidential bid shortly thereafter. Fortune favors the bold, and fortune certainly blessed Obama’s boldness a year ago this week.

Now, Sarah Palin has to follow that path. She must take advantage of this unique moment. After her tour to promote Going Rogue: An American Life concludes, and after she does her part to help conservative Republicans secure House and Senate victories in the 2010 midterms, she must commit to a 2012 Presidential run.

Palin will shatter the hearts of her supporters if she declares, a la Colin Powell, that a bid for the White House is a calling she does not yet hear. Millions of Americans now see her as the only person that can turn around the turmoil, the only political figure who can bring limited-government conservatism back to its rightful place in the US. To pass up this opportunity with so much momentum behind her is to act stupidly.

Palin will never have another real chance to run if she forfeits a 2012 bid. Pro-Palin sentiment is intense on the American right, but it cannot, and will not, last forever. If she fails to seize this moment, she will drive her devotees into doubt. Yes, her admirers can look past her July 2009 decision to resign as governor of Alaska, but if she says no to a 2012 bid, her supporters will naturally start to wonder if she’s all hype with no hope.

Can Palin actually defeat President Obama? In the eyes of her strongest supporters, she has to. If Palin runs, she will have scores of volunteers who will go without sleep or comfort to ensure that she becomes the 45th President. To many conservatives, libertarians and independents, Palin is the literal embodiment of truth, justice and the American way—and they will do whatever it takes to support their superhero.

Palin cannot disappoint these people. She must know that they view her as the epitome of what makes America great—and, more importantly, as the ultimate repudiation of American liberalism. In Palin, they see a woman who rejects in toto progressive elitism and secular humanism. The more the left looks down upon her, the more these supporters will lift her up.

In Palin, they see hope—hope that Washington’s mistakes will finally be corrected, hope that the American progressive establishment will finally get its comeuppance, hope that the average man and woman will finally have someone in power who will represent their interests and concerns. In their eyes, Palin is the ultimate patriot—the symbol of something better, something greater, something purer.

The strength of the bond that has formed between Palin and her supporters cannot be overstated. Palin is the ordinary person who just happens to be extraordinary—the person who had big dreams and the courage to purse those dreams until they became real. In their view, America was created so that people like Palin could rise to prominence; in her, they see evidence that America has no caste system, no guaranteed privileges due to birth or station. Anybody can be somebody in this country, and she’s living proof.

Palin’s rise is a testament to her sheer force of will, her determination to make her mark upon this land. Palin’s supporters live vicariously through her—and why not? Don’t Obama’s supporters live vicariously through him?

Palin cannot disappoint the people who have made such a great emotional and intellectual investment in her. She must bring this dream to reality.

Millions of Americans want to see Sarah Palin take that oath on January 20, 2013. They want to be there for that moment—that moment when any dream can come true, when any goal can be accomplished, when any medal can be won. Across America, people are calling on Palin to run. She must answer “Yes”—or, even better, “You betcha!”

Jonah Goldberg, Ramesh Ponnuru, David Brooks, Crystal Wright, Alex Castellanos, Peggy Noonan and Charles Krauthammer on last Tuesday’s electoral results.

Jon Henke on Doug Hoffman’s loss in New York.

UPDATE: More from Conor Friedersdorf.

Edward Crane advises the GOP to wash its hands of neoconservatism.

Please join us tonight at 8:00pm EST for The Notes on Blog Talk Radio! We will begin with a symposium on the first anniversary of President Obama’s victory, and at 8:30pm we will have Richard Brookhiser from National Review!

Fred Barnes on the GOP’s victories in Virginia and New Jersey.

UPDATE: More from Rick Moran, Jed Babbin, Peter Beinart and Mike Flynn.

Robert Costa on Doug Hoffman.

UPDATE: From Reihan Salam and Jonah Goldberg.

Will Barack Obama vs. Sarah Palin become the next George W. Bush vs. Al Gore?

If Palin secures the GOP nomination in 2012, her challenge to the President will represent the sharpest ideological contrast since the controversial 2000 race. Palin’s intense support among conservative activists stems from the belief that she is the only person who can move the GOP back to the political philosophy of the Reagan era. If she becomes the GOP’s standard-bearer, she will represent a thorough refutation of the Obama vision.

While both men tried to touch upon themes that seemingly transcended ideology, Bush and Gore ultimately represented what Thomas Sowell once called a “conflict of visions.” Bush putatively stood for traditionalist America; Gore putatively stood for modernist America. While Bush did drop hints that he wasn’t that much of a believer in limited government, his base of support was clearly comprised of those who felt government was too burdensome, too onerous, too hostile to average Americans. Bush represented the heartland, the average Joe, the faith-filled flyover family; he would stand against the economic and social left and yell, “Stop!”

Gore represented those who regarded America’s past as more horrible than honorable. Gore’s core supporters were those who summarily rejected “heartland values” as nothing more than a code word for unchecked corporate greed, Christian Shari’a, white male privilege and foreign-policy bullying. These supporters believed that Gore would work towards a better, fairer America, one that guaranteed economic and social justice.

The rage with which progressives greeted the ultimate outcome of the 2000 contest should have come as no surprise. The American left regarded Bush’s victory as a moral horror, the first step in the attempt by the right to reverse every political and cultural gain the left had made since the post-WWII era. The left’s subsequent drift into conspiracy theorizing (remember the 2004 Jadakiss song “Why,” which suggested that Bush was the actual mastermind of 9/11?) was also predictable.

While many conservatives and progressives believed that John Kerry’s challenge to Bush in 2004 was another sharp ideological contrast, there wasn’t enough objective evidence to justify such a claim. Yes, Kerry was to the left of Bush on such issues as the judiciary and the Iraq War, but by ’04 it was clear that both men were domestic big spenders who believed in the fundamental goodness of government. Conservatives who voted for Bush did so either because they hated Kerry or because they did not want to oust a Commander-in-Chief in the middle of a war, not because they had any real hope that a second Bush term would result in any actual restraints on the size, scope and power of the federal government.

The 2008 race between Obama and John McCain was another ideological blur. McCain had cast a scornful eye upon movement conservatives for years, regarding them as nothing more than rigid ideologues and pests. McCain was Mr. Middle, Mr. Moderate, Mr. Reach Across the Aisle and Embrace Ted Kennedy. A year after the election, it’s still hard to believe that during one of those awful debates, McCain referred to Obama as “Senator Government,” a name that could just as easily apply to McCain himself.

Obama and McCain were equally skeptical of the conservative vision of domestic and foreign policy. With no real ideological difference to be found on the Presidential ballot, it’s not a surprise that millions of conservatives stayed home last year.

Palin may not be perfect, and she may still have noticeable flaws in 2012, but she is the only potential GOP candidate who can compel conservatives to actually leave their homes to vote. Because her vision of how America should be is so dramatically different from that of the President, an Obama-Palin race will be far more compelling, and far more historic, than either of the previous two contests.

Hopefully, Palin will select a running mate who can emphasize the ideological contrast instead of obscuring it. Despite his recent perceived missteps, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich would be ideal for this role; however, he’s not the only person capable of drawing a bright line between the GOP and Democratic tickets. Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor, Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal would also help Palin clarify her commitment to conservatism. (In theory, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann would also fit the bill; however, Bachmann has been characterized so extensively in the press as a “wingnut” that she would actually injure Palin’s Presidential chances, not help them.)

I’ve gone back and forth on Palin’s potential—but the reality is that no one has galvanized the right the way she has. Those of us who have profound disagreements with the Obama vision must now concede that Palin is the only voice through which such disagreement can be heard clearly. Palin is the official and undisputed leader of the American conservative movement. Now, she must lead that movement to victory.

This Is It tops the charts.

The Washington Times on the troubled Boston public schools.

Jeff Jacoby on the questionable arguments being advanced in the debate over Obamacare.

Rich Muny on social-conservative opposition to online gambling.